Severe Heat Stress Beyond Mid-Century
After the 2040s and 2050s, extreme heat is expected to become the main factor limiting corn and soy yields, surpassing the impact of water shortages. This level of heat stress is unprecedented in the region’s farming history.
Projected Yield Losses of 40–50%
In high-warming scenarios, staple crops across the Midwest could experience yield declines approaching 50% by the end of the century, significantly disrupting food supply.
Shifting of Growing Regions Northward
As temperatures rise, the most suitable zones for corn and soy production are projected to move farther north, rendering parts of the current Corn Belt less viable without major adaptation.
Increasing Water Stress Then Heat Stress
Initially, drought and water scarcity will challenge farmers, but as the century progresses, high heat will become the dominant threat to crop productivity.
Technological Adaptation Is Essential
Avoiding severe declines will require new solutions—such as developing heat- and drought-tolerant crops and adopting diversified, climate-resilient farming systems.
Intensifying Flood Risk
More frequent heavy rainfall and flooding in key Corn Belt states threaten planting schedules, infrastructure, and crop quality, compounding the risks from heat and drought.
Broad Breadbasket Vulnerability
Because the Corn Belt supplies a significant share of global grain, its decline could contribute to wider food insecurity if multiple agricultural regions experience similar climate shocks.
Emerging Solutions—Short Corn and Enhanced Weathering
Farmers are testing innovations like short-stature corn varieties that resist wind and drought, along with soil treatments such as crushed rock to improve yields and store carbon.
