1. Coffee
Coffee is a daily ritual for millions, but tariffs on imported coffee beans could make that morning cup costlier. The United States imports the majority of its coffee from countries like Brazil, Colombia, and Vietnam. With new tariffs threatened or imposed in recent trade negotiations, importers warn that wholesale prices may rise. According to the National Coffee Association, about 64% of Americans drink coffee daily, so any price hike impacts a huge group. Retailers often pass additional costs straight to consumers, so your favorite coffee blend may soon climb in price at the grocery store or café. Even specialty beans, which already cost more, could see steeper hikes, squeezing both coffee lovers and small businesses. Many experts point to the 2018 trade tensions as evidence, when prices briefly surged due to uncertainty in global supply chains. A more expensive cup of joe could soon be the new normal.
2. Olive Oil
Olive oil is a must-have for anyone who cooks, yet it’s increasingly vulnerable to tariffs. The U.S. imports most of its olive oil from Europe, particularly Spain and Italy. With ongoing trade disputes between the U.S. and European Union, tariffs on olive oil imports have already been discussed and, in some cases, enacted. Recent USDA data shows that over 95% of America’s olive oil is imported, making it extremely sensitive to international price changes. In 2023, the price of olive oil hit record highs in Europe due to droughts, and tariffs only add to the sticker shock. Experts warn that a bottle of quality extra virgin olive oil could soon move from pantry staple to luxury item for many families. Home cooks may need to ration or substitute with less expensive oils, but nothing quite matches the real thing for flavor or health benefits.
3. Cheese
Cheese, especially imported favorites like Parmesan and Brie, could get much pricier. The U.S. imports significant quantities of cheese from Europe, and tariffs on dairy products have already caused some price increases in recent years. In fact, during the 2019 U.S.-EU trade dispute, tariffs on European cheese made imported varieties up to 25% more expensive. While some tariffs have been lifted, new rounds are being considered as trade talks continue. According to the International Dairy Foods Association, American cheese consumption has grown steadily, making potential cost increases widely felt. Specialty cheese shops and even major supermarkets may have to raise prices or limit their selection if tariffs return. Shoppers might notice smaller wedges, higher price tags, or fewer options at the deli counter.
4. Rice
Rice is a universal staple, but some types may be at risk of rising costs due to tariffs. The U.S. produces a lot of rice, but also imports specialty varieties like jasmine and basmati from Asia. Tariffs on products from countries like India, Thailand, and Vietnam are being discussed as part of broader trade negotiations. The USA Rice Federation notes that more than 20% of rice consumed in America comes from imports, especially in diverse cities with large Asian populations. If tariffs are imposed, those who prefer aromatic or specialty rices could see prices climb quickly. Restaurants and home cooks alike may be forced to switch to domestic alternatives or pay more for their favorites. Even small increases can add up, especially for large families or businesses serving rice dishes daily.
5. Wine
Wine lovers may be shocked to see their favorite bottles edge up in price if tariffs return or increase. The U.S. is one of the world’s largest importers of wine, particularly from France, Italy, Spain, and Australia. In 2019-2020, wine tariffs of up to 25% were imposed on European wines, causing imports to drop and prices to jump for consumers. Many wine shop owners reported fewer sales and limited selection as a result. Since some tariffs were lifted, shelves have refilled, but trade tensions are far from over. According to Wine Institute data, imported wines make up about one-third of U.S. wine sales. Any change in tariffs can quickly ripple through the market, making a bottle of Chianti or Bordeaux noticeably more expensive at dinner parties and restaurants.
6. Chocolate
Chocolate is a treat that could become harder to indulge in if tariffs hit. The U.S. imports vast quantities of chocolate and cocoa products from Europe and Africa. With ongoing trade disputes, tariffs on chocolate have been proposed multiple times, especially on luxury European brands. According to the National Confectioners Association, Americans spend over $20 billion a year on chocolate. Any tariff would directly increase the cost of imported chocolate bars, baking chocolate, and even cocoa powder. Candy makers say they may have to raise prices or reduce the size of their products to cope with rising costs. Consumers might find their favorite European brands are priced out of reach or even missing from store shelves during periods of high tariffs.
7. Pasta
Pasta, especially imported Italian brands, is another kitchen staple at risk. The U.S. imports a significant share of its dried pasta from Italy, where traditional production methods and high-quality wheat are prized. Tariffs on pasta have been implemented before, most notably during past U.S.-EU trade disputes. According to the National Pasta Association, pasta consumption in the U.S. has increased by more than 25% over the past two decades. Even a modest tariff could mean a notable price jump for consumers, particularly those who prefer authentic Italian brands. Restaurants and home cooks may have to choose between paying more or switching to domestic brands, which may not offer the same taste or texture.
8. Canned Tomatoes
Canned tomatoes, a base for countless sauces and soups, face possible price hikes due to tariffs. The U.S. imports a considerable amount of canned and processed tomatoes from Italy. In the past, tariffs on these imports have been used as bargaining chips in trade negotiations. According to USDA data, the U.S. imported over 200,000 metric tons of tomato products from Italy in 2022 alone. If tariffs return, prices for canned tomatoes could increase, making homemade pasta sauces, pizzas, and stews more expensive to prepare. Some experts warn that such price hikes could disproportionately affect low-income families who rely on canned goods for affordable meals.
9. Seafood
Seafood, especially popular imports like shrimp, salmon, and tuna, could see significant price increases if tariffs escalate. The U.S. imports over 80% of its seafood, much of it from Asia and Canada. In recent years, tariffs on Chinese and European seafood products have caused prices to rise and supply chains to shift. According to NOAA Fisheries, American seafood consumption has hit record highs, so changes in price can impact millions. Restaurants, sushi bars, and grocery stores may need to raise prices or offer fewer imported options. Consumers may also notice smaller portions or a switch to less expensive species as businesses adapt to higher costs.
10. Spices
Spices add flavor to every dish, but many of the world’s most popular spices are grown overseas and could be affected by tariffs. The U.S. imports huge quantities of black pepper, cinnamon, turmeric, and cardamom from countries like India, Vietnam, and Indonesia. According to the American Spice Trade Association, more than 90% of spices used in the U.S. are imported. Tariffs could make everything from curry powder to pumpkin spice lattes cost more. Specialty grocers and restaurants might have to reduce their selection or raise prices for spiced dishes. Even home bakers and cooks could feel the pinch when buying their favorite spice blends.
11. Tea
Tea drinkers could be in for a surprise as tariffs loom over imported teas. The U.S. imports nearly all of its tea from countries such as China, India, and Sri Lanka. Recent trade tensions have put tea on the list of goods subject to tariffs, according to the Tea Association of the USA. With more than 159 million Americans drinking tea daily, even small price increases can add up quickly. Specialty and organic teas, which often come from smaller producers, could be especially hard hit. Grocery stores may offer fewer options, and tea shops might have to increase prices or reduce their menu. For many, that soothing cup of tea may soon come with a higher price tag.
12. Fruit Juices
Fruit juices, especially orange juice and apple juice, are staples at breakfast tables across the country. The U.S. imports a significant amount of concentrated juices from Brazil, Mexico, and China. Tariffs on these imports have been implemented in the past during trade disputes. According to the USDA, the U.S. imported over 500 million gallons of fruit juice in 2023. If tariffs rise, juice prices at the grocery store could jump, affecting families who rely on affordable drinks for kids. Some juice companies may cut costs by using less fruit or more additives, changing the taste and nutritional value.
13. Honey
Honey, a natural sweetener enjoyed in teas, on toast, and in baking, depends heavily on imports. The U.S. imports more than half of its honey, mostly from Argentina, India, and Vietnam. Recent tariffs on imported honey, combined with global shortages due to bee population declines, have already nudged prices higher. According to the USDA, honey imports hit a record high in 2022, highlighting the U.S. market’s reliance on foreign producers. If tariffs increase, consumers could see honey prices rise again, and some brands may blend imported honey with cheaper syrups to keep costs down.
14. Frozen Vegetables
Frozen vegetables are a convenience food found in almost every freezer, but many of these products are imported from countries like Mexico, China, and Canada. Tariffs on frozen vegetables have been discussed as part of ongoing trade negotiations. According to the American Frozen Food Institute, over 30% of frozen vegetables consumed in the U.S. are imported. Any tariff increase would likely be passed on to consumers, making healthy eating more expensive for families watching their grocery budgets. Food companies may also reduce package sizes or offer fewer varieties to offset rising import costs.
15. Cooking Oils
Cooking oils like canola, sunflower, and palm oil are essential in every kitchen, but many of these are imported to meet U.S. demand. Tariffs on edible oils from countries such as Canada, Malaysia, and Indonesia are already affecting prices. According to Statista, the U.S. imports millions of metric tons of various cooking oils each year. Any increase in tariffs could make even basic frying or salad dressing pricier. Restaurants may raise menu prices, and consumers might have to switch to different oils or buy smaller bottles to stick to their budgets. For those who cook at home frequently, the impact could be felt with every meal.
