1. What Are Tariffs and Why Do They Matter?
Tariffs are taxes imposed on imported goods. When a tariff is applied to a product coming into the U.S., it raises the cost for the importer, who often passes that cost down the line—ultimately reaching consumers at the grocery store. Even though the U.S. produces a lot of its own food, it still relies on imports for many staples, especially certain fruits, vegetables, seafood, and coffee.
2. Are Grocery Prices Going Up Because of Tariffs?
Yes, grocery prices are likely to rise, say food economists and industry experts. While the increase may not be drastic across the board, prices for certain imported items are expected to go up. David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, notes that tariffs function like a tax—making imported goods more expensive and contributing to overall inflation in the food sector.
5. Imported Goods at Higher Risk
About 15% of America’s food supply is imported, including nearly a third of all fresh vegetables, over half of fresh fruits, and nearly all seafood. With this level of dependency on global suppliers, any disruption—such as increased tariffs—can create price volatility and supply chain uncertainty, from grocery shoppers to importers and food manufacturers.
6. Seafood Is Especially Vulnerable
Seafood is particularly complicated. Much of it is caught in U.S. waters but then sent to China for labor-intensive processing before being returned for sale in the U.S. If tariffs are applied both when the product enters and leaves China, it could become economically unviable, leading to higher prices or supply issues.
7. Why You May Pay More for Fruits and Vegetables
Consumers demand fresh produce year-round, even when it’s out of season domestically. To meet that demand, the U.S. imports many fruits and vegetables that can’t be grown here year-round or are cheaper to grow abroad. Bananas, for example, are almost entirely imported. Coffee, too, is mostly brought in from other countries, with minimal domestic production.
8. Not All Price Hikes Come from Tariffs
Interestingly, prices may rise even on goods not directly affected by tariffs. Companies often engage in “price gap management”—if competitors raise prices due to tariffs, others may follow suit to maintain profit margins. Also, some ingredients or packaging materials may be imported, making the final product more expensive even if it’s assembled or grown in the U.S.
9. Tariff Confusion Creates Market Turbulence
Tracking which products are actually affected by tariffs can be confusing. For instance, tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods depend on exemptions under agreements like the USMCA. Goods from China may face tariffs as high as 145%. But due to complexities in certification and verification, many companies may opt to just pay the tariff rather than seek exemptions, contributing to more market instability.
10. Domestic Food Production Could Help—In Some Cases
Because the U.S. produces a large share of its own food, some prices may actually fall if international markets become less accessible. For example, if poultry and pork exports decline due to retaliatory tariffs, there may be an oversupply domestically, pushing prices down. However, this only applies to certain food categories and may not offset increases elsewhere.
11. Smart Substitutions Can Save You Money
Shoppers can manage costs by choosing domestically produced alternatives. For instance, parmesan cheese from Wisconsin is often cheaper than authentic Parmigiano-Reggiano from Italy. You might also swap imported Scotch for Kentucky bourbon or buy American-grown apples instead of imported fruit. Flexibility and a willingness to substitute can go a long way.
12. Tariff Concerns Are Changing Consumer Behavior
A recent NielsenIQ study found that most Americans believe tariffs will affect grocery prices. Many are already cutting back on spending. This psychological impact—driven by uncertainty—can influence not just how people shop, but how much they’re willing to spend and what they’re putting in their carts.
13. Price Hikes Are Likely for Specific Products
Here are some items you might see rise in price:
Bananas – almost entirely imported.
Coffee – mostly grown outside the U.S.
Olive oil – predominantly sourced from Europe.
Seafood – especially varieties processed abroad.
14. Tips to Cope with Rising Food Prices
Experts offer a few key strategies:
Make a grocery list and stick to it.
Watch out for shrinkflation—smaller packages at the same price.
Check unit prices to evaluate real value.
Explore canned, frozen, and dried alternatives.
Consider store brands, which often offer the same quality at lower prices. Be cautious with sales, which can sometimes mask price increases.
