The global food supply chain continues to face unprecedented pressure as we move through 2026. Climate change, supply disruptions, and disease outbreaks have created a perfect storm affecting grocery shelves worldwide. Recent data shows that hundreds of millions of people are experiencing acute food insecurity, and even developed nations are feeling the strain. What once seemed like temporary pandemic-era shortages have evolved into longer-term scarcity issues affecting everyday staples. Here are eleven foods becoming increasingly difficult to find and afford.
Eggs
Eggs remain priced quite high in 2024 and shortages are expected to continue in 2025 because of avian flu, which has caused multiple years of pared-down flocks and a continually shrinking egg supply. Outbreaks from the bird flu and facility fires in 2024 led to the loss of nearly 40 million commercial table egg layers in 12 states, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Eggs are three times as expensive in California as they were in early 2023, and it looks like the egg shortage and high prices will continue into 2025. Egg producer Cal-Maine Foods said it saw demand outpace available supply, according to a Q2 earnings report.
Chocolate and Cocoa
Cocoa prices rocketed to a 50-year high of almost $13,000 per tonne in 2024 as climate change, disease, and aging trees resulted in mass crop failure across Ghana and Ivory Coast where most of the world’s cocoa is grown. Global cocoa production fell by 14% in the 2023-24 season, as output slowed in both Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, where at least 60% of the world’s cocoa is produced. These two countries alone account for over 70% of global cocoa production, resulting in a significant 13.1% decrease in 2024. In 2024, cocoa prices saw a historic surge, rising by between 120% and 150% compared to the previous year.
Olive Oil
The price of olive oil nearly doubled between October 2023 and October 2024, according to the Federal Reserve. Extreme hot weather and persistent drought conditions have dealt a severe blow to olive oil production in southern Europe, where countries collectively account for a staggering two-thirds of global olive oil production. Spain, the world’s biggest exporter of olive oil, has halved its production due to drought and extreme heat. Olive oil prices were on average 50% higher in January 2024 than they were a year before.
Coffee
Arabica coffee prices have more than doubled in the past year, exceeding $4 per pound. Brazil and Vietnam account for 56% of global coffee supply, and recent developments include severe droughts in Brazil (worst in 70 years) and extreme flooding in Vietnam. Brazil faces a projected 12.4% decline in its Arabica production. Vietnam’s crop potential is expected to be 24 million bags in 2024/25, the lowest in 13 years, leading to an unprecedented fourth year of deficits for robusta beans used in instant coffee.
Sugar
In 2023, India, the second largest producer of the world’s sugar, banned sugar exports in order to satisfy domestic demand after a season with bad growing conditions and a low-yield harvest, and Reuters reports the ban is likely to extend another year, leaving much of the world to depend on the top sugar producer, Brazil. As of June 2024, 16 countries had implemented 22 food export bans, and 8 had implemented 15 export-limiting measures in major food commodities, while food inflation has increased between 5 and 30 per cent in most of the low- and middle-income countries.
Wheat and Flour
The price of flour is already up 8.5% compared to last year, according to the Consumer Price Index, and analysts predict that Americans will continue to feel the effects of a flour shortage into 2024. The underlying cause isn’t the Russian aggression in Ukraine, it’s droughts happening right here in the United States, where two out of the three main varieties of wheat are primarily grown in the South and Central States, an area which has faced extremely dry conditions. Production and trade of wheat, maize, and rice in 2024 decreased and are forecast to decline below the 2023 level by 1.1 per cent.
Rice
A shortage of rice is still on the table into the second half of 2023, as the world’s rice supply has been ravaged by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as damaging weather in major rice producing countries like China and Pakistan. Rice supply faces challenges from droughts and extreme weather conditions, and India’s government has enacted rice export restrictions, decreasing the rice supply to the U.S. Only rice prices were projected to stay above prepandemic levels through 2034 as Sub-Saharan population growth drives high global demand for rice.
Vegetable Oils
According to the USDA, oil prices are predicted to increase by 4.6%, and the impact of severe weather on harvests and the Ukrainian conflict are the primary drivers behind these escalating costs. Canola oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and sunflower oil will be tricky to come by because Canada, the leading producer of canola oil, had a small crop yield, and South America suffered from a drought, resulting in a small crop of soybeans. Prices of international wheat, maize, sorghum, and vegetable oils were projected to remain above long-term averages because of inflation, severe weather events, and supply chain disruptions.
Beef
According to the Food Price Outlook report by the USDA, beef prices are expected to rise by 2.2% in 2024, largely due to rising feed costs and water scarcity. The combination of drought conditions affecting cattle ranching regions and increased costs for animal feed has created pressure throughout the beef supply chain. Water scarcity in key cattle-producing states means ranchers are facing difficult decisions about herd sizes, which ultimately translates to reduced supply and higher prices at grocery stores and restaurants nationwide.
Fresh Produce
In 2025, shoppers could notice a lack of fresh produce on the shelves, as some farms depend on migrant labor for picking and packing, and if immigration policies get tougher to the point where farm workers are harder to find or hire, this could cause a shortage, with berries and apples being examples of fresh produce heavily reliant on migrant labor. Climate change is another factor that can lead to food shortages, as extreme weather events, like floods and droughts, can impact growing in farming regions, with droughts creating shortages for water-intensive foods like almonds, while extensive rain can damage corn or soybean crops.
Sriracha Hot Sauce
Huy Fong Foods’ popular Sriracha hot sauce returned to store shelves in early 2024 only to have production halted again in May, as Huy Fong sent a letter to distributors notifying them that the peppers used in Sriracha failed to ripen in time for harvest thanks to ultra-high temps and dry conditions, with production halted and a return to shelves promised after Labor Day. The ongoing climate challenges affecting chile pepper crops in Mexico continue to create uncertainty around availability. Even when bottles do appear on shelves, they may have discoloration from peppers that were harvested during suboptimal conditions.
Salmon
California officials moved forward with banning both commercial and recreational salmon fishing for the entirety of the 2023 fishing season, which is the first time a ban like this has occurred since 2008. Declining salmon populations driven by drought conditions, warming waters, and habitat degradation have forced unprecedented conservation measures. The West Coast salmon fishery faces ongoing challenges that extend beyond a single season, with experts warning that recovery could take years even under improved environmental conditions.
